Following the Awards Season 2021/2022: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
Just 9-months since the last Academy Awards, already the awards season is upon us again with the Oscar Nominations being just around the corner. Being announced on February 8th, the Oscar Nominations promise to deliver plenty of surprises and disappointments but once again let’s try to take a swing and predict what these nominations will be!
Best Animated Short Film
Due to a simple lack of time and availability, much of the short predictions this year will be sight unseen. As always with this category, Disney is the studio to beat with Us Again being a near-lock for a nomination. The personal nature of Affairs of the Art and Flowering Home feels in line with what the category normally rewards which helps put them into the predicted lineup. Erick Oh found a nomination in this same category last year for his unique short Opera so it wouldn’t be too much of a shock to see him once again get nominated this time for Namoo with the last open slot going to The Shaman’s Apprentice which has the added push of being a directorial effort from Zacharias Kunuk who is best known for his film Atanarjuat: The Fast Runner.
Predicted Lineup: Affairs of the Art, Flowering Home, Namoo, The Shaman’s Apprentice, Us Again
Best Live Action Short Film
Possibly being one of the hardest categories to predict at this years’ Oscars, there really isn’t a clear frontrunner in this category meaning that it is more of a guessing game than ever as far as what will get nominated. The star power of Riz Ahmed gives The Long Goodbye the most momentum while the clear social commentary on real-life suffering within Please Hold and When the Sun Sets feels similar to what the category has rewarded in the past. The creativity of Censor of Dreams is rather undeniable leaving one spot open which will be filled with The Dress which is a poignant character study of adversity that also sees one of the best performances of the year from Anna Dzieduszycka.
Predicted Lineup: Censor of Dreams, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, Please Hold, When the Sun Sets
Best Documentary Short Film
Once again looking not just at the content of the short films but also the studios behind their campaigns, Netflix seems to be pushing both Audible and Lead Me Home rather hard with both films containing raw human emotion in a form historically successful at the Oscars. Both The Facility and Eagles are rather heartbreaking looks at politically relevant messages which is something the category tends to reward leading to one open spot remaining. While it is tempting to put Day of Rage: How Trump Supporters Took the U.S. Capitol in this spot considering how undeniable the short is, the final prediction is going to go to Sophie & the Baron which has Disney behind its campaign and has grown a solid foundation of support which feels more digestible for wider audiences.
Predicted Lineup: Audible, Eagles, The Facility, Lead Me Home, Sophie & the Baron
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cross-referencing the Oscar shortlist for the category and 2022 Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild nominations, an overlap can be found in Coming 2 America, Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, No Time to Die, The Suicide Squad, and West Side Story meaning that only Cyrano and Nightmare Alley were the shortlisted films to miss the Guild nominations! A common path to nominations in this category in the past has been having a key transformative performance that uses noticeable makeup as seen with films like Hillbilly Elegy and Vice meaning that both House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye feel rather safe to predict as frontrunners for the category. Dune seems to be in line for a massive nomination tally when it comes to technical awards so it also feels like an easy prediction. The category hasn’t been afraid to nominate films that fail to gain much support elsewhere and with the original Suicide Squad winning the category, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see The Suicide Squad score a nomination either. This final spot is rather tricky between Cruella and West Side Story. Multiple Disney films have scored nominations in the past but West Side Story stands as a best picture contender. Ultimately looking at the Guild nominations, Cruella managed to get nominations in both Makeup and Hairstyling categories while West Side Story only scored a Hairstyling nomination so this wider lense of support is going to be enough to push Cruella into that final spot.
Predicted Lineup: Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Suicide Squad
Best Costume Design
While no shortlist for the category of Best Costume Design was released, it can be seen from the 2022 Costume Designers Guild nominations that there is industry support for the likes of Dune, The Green Knight, The Matrix Resurrections, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Suicide Squad, Coming 2 America, Don’t Look Up, In the Heights, No Time to Die, Cruella, Cyrano, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley and West Side Story as legitimate contenders. Immediately Dune earns a predicted nomination considering the trajectory many are expecting it to have with the technical awards. Beyond Dune, House of Gucci earns a predicted nomination considering its focus on fashion and noticeably extravagant designs. The same can be said for Cruella which is only helped by Disney’s relationship to the category which has seen recent nominations for the likes of Mulan, Beauty and the Beast, and Maleficent. West Side Story also has many notable costume decisions alongside being a Best Picture contender which boosts it onto the predictions. While it isn’t impossible to see something like Cyrano, Nightmare Alley or Coming 2 America score nominations, the final spot is going to go off the Guild Nominations to Spencer. While Spencer has struggled massively to this point and seems to be on the path towards a disappointing nomination morning, the costumes within the feature feel undeniable and the film seems to fit the bill for a nomination in nearly every sense. It also isn’t impossible to see a nomination that missed the Guild so it wouldn’t be an unbelievable result to see.
Predicted Lineup: Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, Spencer, West Side Story
Best Production Design
Again, with no shortlist to pull from, the best tool to get an insight on the industry thoughts on the Best Production Design category comes from the guilds. The 2022 Art Directors Guild gave nominations to the realistic possibly nominated Don’t Look Up, In the Heights, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of MacBeth, West Side Story, Dune, and The Green Knight. Checking off Dune, both The French Dispatch, and Nightmare Alley feel relatively safe for nominations considering just how much attention each film has gotten for their production design throughout the year. Best Picture contender West Side Story feels safe for a nomination here with the final spot once again going off Guild for The Power of the Dog.
Predicted Lineup: Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Back with a shortlist to cross-reference with, films that both made the Oscar shortlist and found Best Visual Effects nominations in the 2022 Visual Effects Society Awards include Dune, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Spider-Man: No Way Home. From this list, Dune, Godzilla vs. Kong, and The Matrix Resurrections all feel safe for nominations with Spider-Man: No Way Home taking the Marvel spot considering its massive financial success. It should be said that Godzilla vs. Kong is a bit risky considering it would be the first Godzilla film in history to score this nomination but considering Kong: Skull Island got nominated, this feels possible. While missing from the guilds entirely, the final slot is going to go to Free Guy which has a Disney campaign behind it and an endless stream of clear visual effects on screen.
Predicted Lineup: Dune, Free Guy, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Matrix Resurrections, Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Original Song
Coming as one of the most difficult categories to predict, Best Original Song quickly becomes a guessing game off of the shortlist past the favorites to win the category which this year is clearly “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die and “Be Alive” from King Richard. The next best thing to being a frontrunner to win is being a song by the legendary Diane Warren who has pulled nominations for the most unlikely of films meaning that “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days gets a predicted nomination. While the star power of the performers behind songs like “Dream Girl” from Cinderella or “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen could lead to surprise nominations, the final two spots will instead go to “Down to Joy” from Belfast and “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto. The one thing working against Disney is that they clearly picked the wrong song from their film with “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” being one of their largest hits of all time, but the power of the mouse should be able to overcome this.
Predicted Lineup: “Down to Joy (Belfast), “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto),“Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days), “Be Alive” (King Richard), “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Best Original Score
Between the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA awards a pattern has started to form in the Best Original Score category with both Dune and The Power of the Dog seeming like locks for nominations. The recent hype of Jonny Greenwood makes it feel strong enough to also predict Spencer in this category alongside Alexandre Desplat’s work within The French Dispatch. The final spot is going to go to Nicholas Britell’s work in Don’t Look Up which only missed a BAFTA nomination from the major precursors.
Predicted Lineup: Don’t Look Up, Dune, The French Dispatch, The Power of the Dog, Spencer
Best Sound
Taking the 2022 Cinema Audio Society Nominations into account, there is clear industry support for Dune, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. All of these films minus Spider-Man: No Way Home feel safe for a nomination leaving only one spot open. While one should watch out for A Quiet Place Part II considering the original film’s nomination in Best Sound Editing, the final slot is going to instead go to Belfast.
Predicted Lineup: Belfast, Dune, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Best Film Editing
Looking at the 2022 American Cinema Editors Awards, industry support can be seen for Belfast, Dune, King Richard, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, Cruella, Don’t Look Up, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, and tick…tick…BOOM!. This is a crucial category for the path towards a Best Picture win with many of the main contenders finding a nomination here. With their momentum, both Belfast and The Power of the Dog are going to make it into the predicted lineup alongside Dune who continues to tear these technical categories apart. No Time to Die is possible but considering Skyfall couldn’t get a nomination here makes it questionable that No Time to Die could get in. Instead, tick…tick…BOOM! will score a prediction considering its noticeable editing hand leaving just one spot left. Going off of the guild, the final prediction will go to West Side Story which is clearly in the top 3 for a Best Picture win at the moment and desperately needs a nomination here to stay in that conversation. One should pay close attention to this category on nomination morning as if any of the 3 frontrunners miss here, that could be devastating to their actual Best Picture chances.
Predicted Lineup: Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog, tick…tick…BOOM!, West Side Story
Best Cinematography
The Best Cinematography category at the Oscars is always one of the more interesting categories when it comes to nominations. Whilst typically there is a seemingly set group of obvious possible nominations, the category isn't afraid to throw a bone at random international features giving some surprising nominations. The 2022 American Society Of Cinematographers Nominations gave love to The Tragedy of MacBeth, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, and Belfast. Similar to Best Film Editing, it feels easy enough to copy this list minus one. Nightmare Alley simply doesn’t have the momentum of these other films and imagining a world where West Side Story replaces it only makes sense.
Predicted Lineup: Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of MacBeth, West Side Story
Best Documentary Feature
When it comes to the documentaries with the most momentum so far this awards season, Flee and The Rescue feel like the safest bets for nominations this year for Best Documentary Feature. While many would be quick to include Summer of Soul in this list, the Academy historically rejects concert films and doesn’t normally respond to documentaries that focus on an event in the past. While some sneak through like Crip Camp and O.J.: Made in America, this happens rarely enough to not predict Summer of Soul which seems to follow the path of most frontrunners for the category that suffer similar issues. Ascension and President have done in precursors with both getting predicted nominations leading to only one spot left. While a bit of a toss-up, this is going to go to the haunting Procession which has a Netflix campaign behind it and leaves an undeniable mark on anyone who watches it.
Predicted Lineup: Ascension, Flee, President, Procession, The Rescue
Best Animated Feature
Per usual, the Best Animated Feature category has been dominated by two films. Both Encanto and Flee have battled for supremacy meaning both feel rather obvious to get nominated. Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon have become the comfortable #3 and #4's in the category – leaving one slot open. Belle and The Mitchells Vs. The Machines have bounced in and out of the final slot with My Sunny Maad playing spoiler after a shock Golden Globe nomination. Still with the lack of mainstream momentum for My Sunny Maad, that is going to stay on the outside of this conversation while Belle and The Mitchells Vs. The Machines battle for that final slot. While on paper it seems rather obvious at first to go with The Mitchells Vs. The Machines, Belle has Mamoru Hosoda behind it as Director who previously managed to get a nomination for Mirai. Both films missed a Golden Globe nomination meaning that the last place to turn are the BAFTA’s who gave The Mitchells Vs. The Machines a nomination. The BAFTA’s have a great track record when it comes to correlation with the Oscars in this category and while it is still absolutely possible that Belle still sneaks in, this is enough to give the prediction to The Mitchells Vs. The Machines.
Predicted Lineup: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells Vs. The Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
Best International Feature
While the eventual winner of the Best International Feature category feels more unpredictable than it has for at least a decade, the nominees feel somewhat obvious. Considering the potential for their success in other categories, A Hero, Drive My Car, Flee and The Worst Person in the World all feel likely for nominations immediately leaving only one slot open. This final slot ends up feeling like it is between two films, both Compartment No. 6 and The Hand of God have grown momentum and both feel plausible for this final slot but ultimately with Netflix backing its campaign, The Hand of God is going to take this spot. While these are the safe five, it would not be shocking to see some major upset so this remains to be one of the more exciting categories to watch on nomination morning.
Predicted Lineup: A Hero, Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, The Worst Person in the World
Best Supporting Actress
Luckily far from the absolute war that was Best Supporting Actress last year, a pattern has begun to form with the Best Supporting Actress category this year with Ariana DeBose, Caitríona Balfe, and Ruth Negga getting nominations at the BAFTA’s, Golden Globe’s, and SAG Awards meaning that they all feel quite safe for nominations. Aunjanue Ellis might have missed a direct nomination at SAG but was included in the SAG Ensemble nomination for King Richard meaning that she fits nicely as a #4. The final spot seems somewhat obvious for Kirsten Dunst who missed BAFTA but made it in both at the Golden Globes and SAG. Her film also is a major Best Picture contender so that momentum should help her rise up to fill this spot. While some might point to Cate Blanchett to play spoiler considering she got in for SAG, her overall lack of support elsewhere and the lack of support for her film as a large makes it a far too risky performance to predict at the current moment.
Predicted Lineup: Caitríona Balfe (Belfast), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Best Supporting Actor
Once again taking the BAFTA’s, Golden Globe’s, and SAG Awards in mind, we can find that both Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee have scored nominations from all 3 meaning that both are incredibly likely to get nominated come nomination morning. Similar to Aunjanue Ellis, Ciarán Hinds scored nominations everywhere but SAG but was included in SAG Ensemble showing overall support for the acting in that film also earning him a predicted nomination. While Ben Affleck might feel like the obvious next choice, The Academy has historically rejected Affleck with his film not having nearly enough momentum to prove that he would overcome this. What does feel incredibly Academy-friendly is Jared Leto in House of Gucci. Being a transformative performance using heavy makeup, this screams Academy Award nomination and his SAG nomination only helps seal the deal. While the final slot is a bit of a toss-up, it is going to land on Jamie Dornan. Belfast has quite a bit of momentum and while Mike Faist is definitely close with West Side Story, a double nomination for Belfast makes sense when one looks at history, and nearly every ad for Belfast features Dornan front and center.
Predicted Lineup: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Best Adapted Screenplay
With not a single film finding a nomination at the Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the 2022 Writers Guild Awards, the Best Adapted Screenplay category is yet another category that feels rather open to interpretation. Considering many major players in both screenplay categories were not eligible at the WGA awards, it is possible to overlook those nominations more than categories and focus more on the other main precursors. The only film to make it in at all 3-precursors for this category was The Power of the Dog which immediately secures it a predicted nomination. While one can overlook what missed at WGA, it is important to see that both CODA and Dune did in fact score nominations there alongside both Critics Choice and BAFTAs meaning that they are also clearly ahead of the pack when it comes to getting a nomination. For over 2-decades there has been a film only nominated for its screenplay with this year’s clear best contender for this being The Lost Daughter which earns it a spot leaving only one open slot. This battle seems to be between West Side Story, Drive My Car and tick…tick…BOOM! with the prediction going to West Side Story. Currently seen as a potential frontrunner for Best Picture, this simply makes the most sense and it did get nominated at both Critics Choice and WGA.
Predicted Lineup: CODA, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay
A bit more helpful than the Adapted Screenplay category, Being the Ricardos, Licorice Pizza and Don’t Look Up all scored nominations at all 4 major screenplay precursors giving only 2 open spots to play with. These spots feel rather easy to predict however as Belfast and King Richard showed up at all but one of the precursors and are both seen as strong contenders for a Best Picture nomination. This feels like honestly the easiest category of the night and while there absolutely could be a shock come nomination morning, it doesn’t feel likely enough to predict.
Predicted Lineup: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
Best Actress
While normally the acting categories tend to have a solid 3-4 nominees that show up everywhere, the Best Actress category this year has been turned upsidedown with the BAFTA nominations that seemingly have come out of nowhere. Lady Gaga is the only actress to show up at the BAFTA’s, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and SAG awards meaning she really feels like the only lock for the category. Nicole Kidman feels like the next safest option following her Golden Globe win and nominations everywhere minus the BAFTA’s. While BAFTA shouldn’t be ignored, taking it out of the equation for a second we can see that Jessica Chastain and Olivia Colman also have support with nominations at the remaining 3 voting bodies. If we assume that those 3 are locks, the final 2 nominations are a crapshoot to predict. Alana Haim, Rachel Zegler, Emilia Jones, Kristen Stewart and Jennifer Hudson all have claims for these spots with no one having anything overwhelmingly helping them stand against the other. Zegler has the Golden Globe win alongside West Side Story’s overall momentum barely pushing her into the 5 alongside Hudson who was the only one from this list to get the nod at SAG. This is incredibly unpredictable however and really any combination of these names could make up the final nomination list.
Predicted Lineup: Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
Best Actor
Thankfully a more kind category than Best Actress, looking through the BAFTA’s, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and SAG awards a pattern can be seen with Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith getting nominations in all 4 awards bodies. Removing BAFTA, Andrew Garfield and Denzel Washington are found on all 3 lists giving us 4 solid nominations nearly right off the bat. This final spot however is between a few names. Mahershala Ali, Leonardo DiCaprio, Javier Bardem, and Peter Dinklage all have 2 nominations between these awards. The strongest combination belongs to Bardem who scored nominations both at SAG and the Golden Globes which alongside the support for Nicole Kidman is enough for him to fill that final spot.
Predicted Lineup: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Will Smith (King Richard), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick…tick…BOOM!), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of MacBeth)
Best Director
Sifting through the BAFTA, Golden Globe, DGA, and Critic Choice nominations, it is clear that Jane Campion is the favorite for a nomination this year being the only director nominated at all 4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Kenneth Branagh, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve all made it not just into 3 but also scored a DGA nomination seemingly giving a clear 5 for the Oscar Nominations. This would be the case if it wasn’t for the stats. While stats are meant to be broken and are not always law, since 1950 there has been at least 1 first-time nominee in this category which is something missing from these 5. There has also historically has been at least 1 foreign language film represented here making Ryusuke Hamaguchi a clear fit for the category. Drive My Car has been building momentum by the day and the question is starting to feel not like if Hamaguchi will make it in, but rather who will he knock out? While many point to Branagh as the easy target, Belfast has a ton of support and still stands as a frontrunner to win Best Picture. Who instead feels more vulnerable is Paul Thomas Anderson. Licorice Pizza has struggled to build a strong foundation as seen with its acting nominees slowly dropping in momentum and if there is one film that feels like it will overall underperform on nomination morning, it is Licorice Pizza. This is enough for PTA to move to number 6 and for Hamaguchi to drive into the predicted nomination list.
Predicted Lineup: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Denis Villeneuve (Dune), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Best Picture
While normally it seems like Best Picture has a strong 7-8 features with a few leftover playing for the last spots, this year feels way more difficult. With a confirmed 10-spots, the vast majority of films feel possible to miss the category. Before those are discussed, the favorites to get nominated that feel somewhat safe to predict include Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Dune, West Side Story and King Richard. This leaves 5 open nominations. Looking through what is predicted for the above-the-line categories, it would seem that Being the Ricardos, CODA, tick…tick…BOOM! and House of Gucci are strong enough within the Academy itself to score nominations also. While many will point to Don’t Look Up as a clear nominee to include, this feels confusing as it doesn’t seem any actor from the film truly has picked up steam to get a nomination despite all being A-level talent who normally can sleepwalk their way into a nomination if not win. With The Academy not normally going for satirical original comedies, the narrative just doesn’t quite add up and it feels like the best choice to predict for a snub when one looks at films with on-paper momentum. This narrative works much better for a film like Licorice Pizza which has new and unknown actors as its leads meaning that there is at least a reason the voting body might overlook them for nominations. While it is tempting to throw Drive My Car in there as a surprise, that final spot is going to go to Licorice Pizza.
Predicted Lineup: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, CODA, Dune, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, tick…tick…BOOM!, West Side Story
With that, CLAPPER’s final predictions for the 2022 Oscar Nominations are locked in. While these obviously won’t be perfect as The Academy tends to throw some surprises out there, looking at the precursors and where the narratives of each film are, this seems like the best possible list of predictions one can logically come to. Most of all remember that these are simply for fun and that above everything else one should enjoy the craziness of Oscar season for all the highs and lows it brings.
