Following the Awards Season 2020/2021: Final Oscar Predictions
following the awards seasonAfter one of the most drawn-out awards seasons ever, both in dates and passion, finally the 93rd Academy Awards have arrived with what promises to be one of the most unique editions of the show to date. Similar to when the nominations were being announced, let’s go through category by category and analyse the race up to this point and give final predictions on who will be bringing home the gold come Sunday night!
Best Animated Short Film:
In what has quickly become a two-film race, it seems rather obvious that the winner can be narrowed down either to Burrow or If Anything Happens I Love You. Coming from Disney, who historically has found great success in this category, Burrow has an undeniable charm that sticks with anyone who watches the short but Netflix's If Anything Happens I Love You is clearly the deeper of the two. Tackling the ever-relevant issue of mass shootings in America, it is hard to picture many voting for a rather hollow yet cute short over something with this amount of purpose and emotion especially when Netflix has the capabilities to legitimately challenge Disney when it comes to a campaign.
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Live Action Short Film:
Where traditionally there is only one or two frontrunners in the Best Live Action Short Film category, this year it truly feels like anyone could take home the trophy. Feeling Through feels close in identity to past winners of the category, such as Stutter and The Silent Child. The Letter Room has easily the biggest star with Oscar Isaac playing its lead. The Present is coming fresh off a BAFTA win. Two Distant Strangers carries a clear attempt at social commentary that despite being incredibly lackluster does feel like what this category has gone for in the past with films such as Skin, and White Eye has grown a decent amount of passion from individuals. Overall, with both the clear social commentary and the backing from Netflix, it does feel like Two Distant Strangers has an edge over the other films mentioned; but this is clearly one of the most competitive categories of the night.
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Should Win: Feeling Through
Best Documentary Short Subject:
In one of the stronger line-ups of any category of the year, Best Documentary Short Subject also feels rather unpredictable. Ruling out the powerful Colette which doesn't typically feel like what the Academy goes for, it really does feel like any of the four other films could take home the trophy. Both Do Not Split and Hunger Ward feature haunting looks at real-life events while A Love Song for Latasha and A Concerto is a Conversation feature mainstream backing from Netflix and producer Ava DuVernay respectfully. Due to their aggressive marketing campaigns, Clapper's prediction is going to come down between Hunger Ward and A Concerto is a Conversation. Looking over the last decade of the category, it is clear that the capturing of global suffering is much more what the Academy likes to reward than personalised celebrations within documentaries so the edge goes to Hunger Ward but ultimately this remains a toss-up.
Will Win: Hunger Ward
Should Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
In one of the clearest categories of the night, it feels rather obvious that this award will be taken by Ma Rainey's Black Bottom which has swept the category in every precursor up to this point. There is a sliver of a chance that Hillbilly Elegy upsets, but with Glenn Close quickly losing momentum it feels hard to believe that film and its transformative makeup will find the passion to overcome the clear favourite.
Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Win: Hillbilly Elegy
Best Costume Design:
Incredibly similar to the Best Makeup & Hairstyling category, the Best Costume Design trophy feels like it should have Ma Rainey's Black Bottom engraved onto the trophy already. The film has also swept every major precursor in this category and where some smaller groups have found other winners, this is hard to read into that much. Sure, The Academy could return to its favourite period piece style with Emma., but this feels rather obvious.
Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Win: Emma.
Best Production Design:
Continuing this line of seemingly obvious below-the-line winners, Mank has swept every major Best Production Design precursor up to this point and there is no reason or hint of weakness to suggest the Oscar will go anywhere else. Unlike the Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Best Costume Design categories, there isn't even a clear film to point to as being any sort of real competition making this possibly the easiest award of the night to predict.
Will Win: Mank
Should Win: News of the World
Best Visual Effects:
Without a Best Picture nominee to default to, it feels rather safe to predict Tenet to take home this trophy both due to its name value and also getting nominated for Best Production Design. The film has done rather well at precursors. The one film to stand as an actual challenger to Tenet would be The Midnight Sky which pulled off a win over Tenet at the Visual Effects Society Awards earlier this month, but since that film couldn't find enough support to get a Best Original Score nomination even with Alexandre Desplat attached, it is clear there is a lack of motivation for that film within the Academy.
Will Win: Tenet
Should Win: Love and Monsters
Best Original Song:
With no song truly having a tonne of passion behind it, this category feels rather open with three major contenders having formed over the last few weeks. There is an undeniable charm to "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga and this is the only song from among the nominees that is not a credit song, which could work out in its favour. "Io sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead won the Golden Globe and carries a clear overdue narrative for Diane Warren. "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami has a good amount of passion behind it and could be used as a way to reward Leslie Odom Jr. for a performance they clearly like but isn't winning elsewhere. Although all three of these narratives could touch enough voters to secure the win, the prediction goes to "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami. This category isn't always fond of comedic songs and with that being the film's only nomination it is entirely possible large populations of The Academy skipped the film entirely. While the Diane Warren narrative is seemingly catching more and more steam each year, she was not officially included on the ballot for the song and the song is statistically challenged being both in a foreign language and the only nomination for the film. Though it would be much easier to predict "Speak Now" had the film shown up in Best Picture, it is clear that the song has momentum. and while the Leslie Odom Jr. narrative isn't the safest to have faith in – especially just one year removed from Cynthia Erivo losing the same category with the same narrative for her role in Harriet – it feels like the song with the fewest forces working against it, which was enough to secure the nomination.
Will Win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
Should Win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami
Best Original Score:
Back to the easier categories to predict, it would be genuinely a bit shocking if Soul didn't win this award after the fantastic awards season it has had in this category. While Minari has found a backbone of passion, it is incredibly hard to see that film overcoming Soul here especially with the name value that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have held this awards season even being double-nominated in this category for both Soul and Mank.
Will Win: Soul
Should Win: Mank
Best Sound:
From incredibly early in the season, it felt like Sound of Metal was a lock for this category with no other competitors really rising to a worthy challenge. With the film being so heavily based on music and incredibly unique touches to the sound design, it is nearly impossible to imagine anyone who has seen the film would vote against it here creating yet another category that feels like a lock.
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Best Film Editing:
This is where things start to get interesting. After Promising Young Woman's historic loss to Palm Springs at the ACE Eddie Awards, this category feels like it comes down to Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. This is one of the early categories to keep an eye on when it comes to the Best Picture narrative, as a Nomadland win over the much flashier The Trial of the Chicago 7 would be a clear sign of an easy path to a Best Picture win for Nomadland but that chance isn't enough for it to get the prediction. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the perfect flashy type of editing for the Academy to get behind and reward which makes it feel like the favourite, especially when paired with its win at the ACE Eddie Awards, but keep an eye out for The Father. There is a small chance that the film has gained enough passion to really do some damage throughout the night and the editing is a constant talking point within the praise for that film.
Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: The Father
Best Cinematography:
Despite a last-minute push for Mank, which surprised nearly everyone with a win at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards over Nomadland, the latter still has dominated the category up to this point in other precursors. When this is paired with the film being the frontrunner for Best Picture, it feels rather safe to still predict Nomadland here, but Mank is at least on the table as a contender. After all, The Academy does love their black-and-white cinematography . . .
Will Win: Nomadland
Should Win: Nomadland
Best Documentary Feature:
Throughout the entire awards season, My Octopus Teacher has slowly started to steamroll not just in building momentum with wins and nominations but also in passion from nearly everyone who sees the film. While clearly not as powerful or relevant as Crip Camp or Time, the film still has a clear heart and enough emotion to feel worthy as a winner.
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Should Win: The Mole Agent
Best Animated Feature:
Clearly, this is going to Soul. At one point there was a push for Wolfwakers but, ultimately, that hype has died down and with Soul also being a near-lock for Best Original Score, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night to see anything upset the Pixar favourite.
Will Win: Soul
Should Win: Onward
Best International Feature:
Whereas one point there would be an at least decent argument that Quo Vadis, Aida? could possibly upset Another Round, after Thomas Vinterberg scored a Best Director nomination there really is no chance anymore. Another Round has been the frontrunner in this category since it was announced in the official Cannes line-up last summer and at this point, there is no stopping the film from taking home Oscar gold.
Will Win: Another Round
Should Win: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Best Supporting Actress:
In what was once the most chaotic race of the season, clarity has been found in recent weeks with Yuh-Jung Youn standing as the clear frontrunner. Whilst Bakalova and Close have bounced in and out of the frontrunner position, Yuh-Jung Youn has found universal support and has become the easy write-in answer for the winner. She feels confident enough to fly from Korea to the Oscar ceremony in Los Angeles during a global pandemic and that trip more than likely won't be for nothing.
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Should Win: Olivia Colman (The Father)
Best Supporting Actor:
Yet another category with a seemingly clear outcome, Daniel Kaluuya has swept the awards season for his powerful portrayal of Black Panther chairman Fred Hampton within Judas and the Black Messiah leading to what seems like an obvious win. On the outside, there is always the slight chance that Sacha Baron Cohen upsets for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Kaluuya has not yet beaten Lakeith Stanfield who also stars in Judas and the Black Messiah due to Stanfield's position in the Best Actor race up to this point, but these seem rather irrelevant, as the race up to this point clearly points to a Kaluuya win.
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Coming down to a 2-film race between The Father and Nomadland, the Best Adapted Screenplay category will provide important insight to the narrative of the night, specifically for Nomadland. With Nomadland being a clear directorial achievement over screenplay and The Father gaining momentum it would appear that The Father is the favourite to win this award, but if Nomadland overachieves and pulls out the win here, then it would almost automatically be a lock for Best Picture. The only other contender really is Borat Subsequent Moviefilm which won the WGA but really doesn't feel like the type of screenplay the Academy goes for and its lack of nominations elsewhere outside of Best Supporting Actress doesn't help the cause.
Will Win: The Father
Should Win: The Father
Best Original Screenplay:
With multiple major wins at precursors including the WGA, it feels rather obvious that Promising Young Woman will take home this award but similar to the opposite screenplay category, it is important to keep an eye on this category for a possible upset that could be a key factor in the Best Picture race. If The Trial of the Chicago 7 can overcome Promising Young Woman it finds new life in the Best Picture race. Being an Academy-friendly Aaron Sorkin script with social relevance and a strong pace, it probably is more likely than people are giving it credit for but still the precursors and narrative up to this point force a Promising Young Woman prediction here.
Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Should Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress:
Here it is, in years of covering the awards season, this Best Actress race genuinely is one of the hardest categories I have had to predict. With the exception of Vanessa Kirby, genuinely everyone not only has a claim to victory but also a clear reason why they shouldn't win. The first place to look to answers is SAG where Viola Davis won in somewhat of a shock for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, yet the Academy proved that they didn't love the film with it missing Screenplay, Director, and Picture. Where this wouldn't be a problem if Davis was the major push for the film, it already seems to have three wins locked in, and pushing that to four without those nominations feels incredibly weird. If the film is going to have the most wins of any movie, why would it miss those key nominations? Before SAG it seemed like Carey Mulligan was going to be the frontrunner for her well-respected role in Promising Young Woman but she has struggled to get competitive wins and her missing even a nomination at BAFTA despite the film being well received elsewhere makes little sense. Andra Day got a surprise win at the Golden Globes but has failed to follow that up with meaningful wins and missed a SAG nomination. When torn, it is historically not a bad idea to point to the performance in the strongest Best Picture position which would default to Frances McDormand for her role in the Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland but McDormand has failed to find any competitive wins. She won at BAFTA but the competition she faces here was absent, other than Kirby who sadly has fallen to the bottom in the category. There is not a single actress here that makes total sense or really even has that much over the others. This is a prediction that has changed for me every time I look at the category and even as I write this, the answer is incredibly unclear. Day and Mulligan feel just a step down to their struggles with precursors. Taking them out we are left with Davis and McDormand with the latter specifically staying alive due to the momentum her film has. Where out of these two it feels much safer to go with Davis due to her success in precursors, something just feels off with predicting Ma Rainey's Black Bottom to get both lead performance awards and Boseman feels much safer than Davis at this point. For the official prediction CLAPPER is going with McDormand but this is really anyone's game.
Will Win: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Should Win: Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Best Actor:
In a much easier race, Best Actor competition really comes down to Chadwick Boseman and Anthony Hopkins. Hopkins has made a last-minute dash for the finish line with a win at BAFTA and a huge increase in momentum but looking at precursors it is hard to bet against Boseman. He swept the awards with the only major exceptions being BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Awards, with the latter being the Film Twitter awards more than anything. Hopkins could pull it off with this last-minute push, but it still feels incredibly likely that Boseman will pull off the win.
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Should Win: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Best Director:
A congratulation needs to be given to Chloé Zhao for one of the most incredible award seasons run in this history of the Best Director category with over fifty wins to her name. This is a deserving and worthy victory for the young director who has impressed throughout her career and marks a historic win for the Academy Awards.
Will Win: Chloé Zhao
Should Win: Chloé Zhao
Best Picture:
Now onto the big one, looking at precursors it is clear that Nomadland is the frontrunner here with a historically dominant run up to this point, but not everything is settled here. While Nomadland has far exceeded expectations elsewhere, the film undeniably is a strange Best Picture winner with the Academy historically not going for films of this nature. Its narrative throughout the night – going off of predictions – also isn't the best with the only wins being for Best Cinematography and Best Director. Although no other film has the path to the win at least through these predictions, it undeniably exists for multiple films. The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Father, Promising Young Woman, and Sound of Metal all have the key Best Film Editing nomination alongside both acting and screenplay nominations and if any of these films over-perform in those categories, it is entirely possible it upsets for Best Picture. The Father and Promising Young Woman both specifically have Screenplay wins already predicted with their leading performances in contention for wins in their respective categories. The Trial of the Chicago 7 also is undeniably a relevant and incredibly Academy-friendly film that has to be taken into consideration over the slow and more meditative Nomadland. Although the prediction goes to Nomadland, this race feels alive and it could go in multiple directions depending on how the show goes.
Will Win: Nomadland
Should Win: The Father
